Understanding bushfire risk
This guidance chapter explains the bushfire risk information used in this policy. It will help schools understand how fire weather forecasts are used to trigger pre-emptive actions, where fire danger ratings and the fire behaviour index come from, and what resources are available to support community bushfire planning and preparedness.
Fire weather forecasts: Fire Danger Ratings and Fire Behaviour Index
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) provides fire weather services to help the community, agencies and the department understand when bushfire conditions may become dangerous. One of the ways this information is communicated is through fire danger ratings (FDRs).
FDRs are calculated using the fire behaviour index (FBI). The FBI is a numerical scale based on things such as temperature, wind and how much fuel (dry vegetation) is around. FDRs and FBIs show how dangerous a fire could be if it starts and how hard it would be to control. They do not predict how likely a fire is to start in the first place.
There are 4 levels of elevated fire danger ratings. Each FDR level is a band of FBI values. However, fire agencies may set a different rating based on local conditions and other factors they consider relevant.
- Moderate (FBI range 12–23) – plan and prepare. Most fires can be controlled. Stay informed and be ready to act if there is a fire in your local area.
- High (FBI range 24–49) – be ready to act. There is a heightened risk. Stay alert for fires in your area.
- Extreme (FBI range 50–99) – take action now to protect your life and property. Fires will spread quickly and be extremely dangerous.
- Catastrophic (FBI 100+) – for your survival, leave bushfire risk areas. These are the most dangerous conditions for a fire. If a fire starts and takes hold, lives are likely to be lost. Stay safe by going to a safer location early in the morning or the night before.
For a visual representation of the Fire Behaviour Index (FBI) and Fire Danger Ratings, go to the AFAC webpage: Design of the Australian Fire Danger Rating System(opens in a new window).
The BoM(opens in a new window) issues public FDRs including the FBI for Fire Weather Districts. Victoria is divided into 9 of these districts. To find your fire weather district, refer to the Country Fire Authority (CFA)(opens in a new window).
The department uses the FDRs at the fire weather districts level as the trigger for Catastrophic day actions for BARR and Category 4 schools.
Local Government Area forecast
The fire weather districts cover large areas, so conditions can vary a lot within them.
The BoM also provides localised fire weather forecasts to emergency services and government departments to support local decision-making. These Local Government Area (LGA) FDRs and FBIs provide a localised picture of fire conditions in the area, which helps avoid closing or relocating schools unnecessarily. The department uses the fire weather forecasts at the LGA level as the trigger for High or Extreme day actions for Category 0–2 schools.
The LGA fire weather forecasts are provided to the department twice daily, in the morning and afternoon. This information is not included in public information or forecasts.
Fire weather forecasts are variable and can be sensitive to small changes in conditions. Because of this, schools at risk of bushfire must be ready to act on short notice during the bushfire season (October to April).
Community bushfire planning resources
If the school community has questions about preparing for the bushfire season, the resources below can help schools answer these questions. Schools can also play an important role in supporting their wider community to be ready.
The Country Fire Authority (CFA) offers information, programs and tools, to help people to plan and prepare for bushfire and grassfire.(opens in a new window) This includes Bushfire safety basics(opens in a new window), which has essential information for anyone living, working or travelling in Victoria during the bushfire season.
Schools can also support their communities to prepare by:
- working with the local CFA Brigade and promoting community meetings
- talking with parents and carers about emergency management plans
- contacting your local CFA District Community Education Coordinator to arrange a bushfire planning workshop for staff and/or families.
School bushfire resources
Research shows that when students have accurate information about bushfires and take part in bushfire planning activities, they can help reduce risk at home, at school, and in the wider community. Involving students in emergency planning also helps them understand and follow the right steps during a bushfire emergency.
The CFA website includes educator resources(opens in a new window) that teachers can utilise in the classroom to support bushfire education and student participation in planning activities.
Updated